What a little fruitcake this bear market is turning out to be!
For starters, the pantywaist bear rally never even reached the green line (x=5815.60, where it would have become a proper ‘mechanical’ short). Now, it threatens to dash the hopes of permabears everywhere with a worst-case low of 4820.00, basis the SPX. That would represent a correction of just 21.5% from the top, barely enough to qualify as an ‘official’ bear, and hardly one for the record books. Is that sufficient to correct the most egregious bubble ever? It would appear so. Both p=5152.10 and d=4820.00 can be used as back-up-the-truck numbers to attempt bottom-fishing. However, don’t expect the lower number to work precisely because the pattern is too obvious. 4820 is on the radar of ten thousand clowns, and that means a low cannot occur precisely at that precise. It will occur near there, nonetheless — hardly the bear market that permabears have been patiently waiting for since, oh, 2010. Perhaps the denouement will ‘shock’ us with its speed? If you’re thinking BFD, you’re right.
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