The chart shows interest rates on the Ten-Year Note rising over the next 8-12 months to 5.5% from a current 4.5%.
This will devastate the economy and lay bare the delusion that America’s economy is booming. The 5.5% figure is deceptive, because, presumably, it will be achieved with asset values falling. If we repeat the experience of the Great Financial Crash of 2007-08, that would imply real rates (i.e., adjusted for deflation) rising to as high as 6%-10%.
That would usher in an economic depression at a time when the U.S. economy is in much worse shape to weather adversity than in 1929. Back then, a third of the workforce was tied to the agricultural economy, literally living off the land.
This time, perhaps 80% of the workforce is tied to bullshit. That figure is not invented, by the way; it is simply extrapolated from Musk’s firing 80% of Twitter’s employees without impairing the company’s ability to carry on normally.
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Rick Ackerman